Imagine you're attempting something, and your chance of success is only 20%. If you try this thing six times, what is the probability of being successful at least once? Andrew Huberman, making an instant mathematical error, said that after five attempts, the chance of success is a total of 100%, and that it is definite. He was talking about trying to get pregnant in this context. However, probabilities don't work like that. Otherwise, casinos wouldn't exist.
There's an interesting simulation regarding success rate and number of attempts. In this simulation, you input your success rate and the number of attempts, and the system gives you an approximate chance of success when you reach enough test numbers. While it doesn't provide a definite result, it's quite intriguing. I came up with an idea while looking at this site, and I decided to write this text based on that idea.
Let's assume we're starting a new project, idea, or business. Moreover, we'll start this venture alone and only with our own knowledge. In this case, I set the success rate to 1% (which I will keep constant) and ran the simulation 1000 times by increasing the number of attempts. The goal was to find out what happens if I persistently try a few times even though the success rate is low.
Here are the results I obtained by running the simulation individually and keeping the probability of success at 1%:
3 attempts: 29/1000 = 3%
5 attempts: 56/1000 = 6%
7 attempts: 83/1000 = 8%
10 attempts: 103/1000 = 10%
15 attempts: 141/1000 = 14%
20 attempts: 169/1000 = 17%
In my previous test inputs, I assumed I was alone when starting the job and left the success rate at 1%. In this test, however, I set my success rate to 3% with a team, mentor, or financial support. Our success rate is still low, even though we have a good team, as many different parameters need to come together and work in harmony to launch the right product. Therefore, I didn't exaggerate the success rate and took it as 3%. Nonetheless, there were tremendous changes in the results. Here are the results:
3 attempts: 106/1000 = 11%
5 attempts: 160/1000 = 16%
7 attempts: 174/1000 = 17%
10 attempts: 280/1000 = 28%
15 attempts: 369/1000 = 37%
20 attempts: 443/1000 = 44%
These simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of unity, perseverance, and continuing to try without giving up. Even though the success rate is low, trying again and again significantly increases the chance of success. Especially in fields like e-commerce or entrepreneurship, one should not hesitate to try different products, variations, or projects.
However, there is a point that should not be forgotten: Every attempt comes with a cost.
This cost could be time, money, or energy. Therefore, instead of blindly trying, it is crucial to analyze the data obtained after each attempt and develop a strategy. Considering factors that will increase the success rate (a good team, accurate analyses, financial knowledge, etc.) can shorten the path to success.
In conclusion, strategic thinking and accurate analyses are as important as perseverance and determination on the road to success. By using these two elements together, you can significantly increase your chances of success.
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